:Product: 19970927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 270 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL B-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8088 (S29W30) CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8088. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IN 8088 AS WELL. MAJOR
FLARES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNLESS THE RATE OF DECAY IN 8088 ACCELERATES
APPRECIABLY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA
DOES NOT YET CLEARLY INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED SHOCK FROM
THE CME'S OBSERVED ON SEP 23-24.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, INCREASING TO STORM CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON
23-24 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
CLASS M    20/15/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 SEP 088
PREDICTED   28 SEP-30 SEP  086/086/084
90 DAY MEAN        27 SEP 082
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  030/020-020/020-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01