:Product: 19970929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 272 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8088 (S29W55) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C2/SF AT 29/1624Z. THIS REGION
IS DECAYING SLOWLY. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8089 (N20W44) IS
ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE SCATTERED PLAGE AND A LONG WINDING
FILAMENT CHANNEL. TODAY'S 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX VALUE (90 SFU) WAS
MEASURED DURING A B6 X-RAY FLARE AND COULD BE ENHANCED ABOVE THE
BACKGROUND LEVEL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8088.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 SEP 090
PREDICTED   30 SEP-02 OCT  086/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        29 SEP 082
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  010/008-010/008-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01