:Product: 19970930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 273 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 SEP 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8088 (S29W67) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB AS A 4-SPOT 'CAO' BETA GROUP. NEW REGION
8090 (S27E69), A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW, WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION
8088.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE
INTERVAL 20/0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS
RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH, CROSSING THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT
APPROXIMATELY 20/1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY ON DAYS
TWO AND THREE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 SEP 088
PREDICTED   01 OCT-03 OCT  088/090/092
90 DAY MEAN        30 SEP 082
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  015/008-010/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01