:Product: 19971001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 274 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. NEW REGION 8091 (N22E72), CURRENTLY A 6-SPOT 'BXO' BETA
GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8091 IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION
8084, WHICH GENERATED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND TWO M-CLASS EVENTS
DURING IT'S INITIAL ROTATION. REGION 8090 (S27E55) REMAINS STABLE AS
A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. BASED ON IT'S PAST HISTORY, REGION 8091 HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH AND MODERATE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE 'HALO' CORONAL MASS
EJECTION DOCUMENTED ON 27 SEPTEMBER. ACTIVITY AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
PEAKED AT MAJOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE 0900-1200Z INTERVAL,
DECREASING TO UNSETTLED THEREAFTER. ACTIVITY AT HIGHER LATITUDES
REMAINED IN THE MINOR TO MAJOR STORM RANGE THROUGH THE 01/1500-1800Z
INTERVAL, BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 OCT-04 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 OCT 087
PREDICTED   02 OCT-04 OCT  090/092/092
90 DAY MEAN        01 OCT 082
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  028/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  010/015-005/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 OCT-04 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01