:Product: 19971002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 275 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8090 (S27E41), A ONE
SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA, GENERATED A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 02/0245Z. THE
ONLY OTHER ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, REGION 8091 (N25E60),
A SEVEN SPOT 'CRO' BETA, HAS REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE WHICH ENDED AT APPROXIMATELY
01/1800Z. YESTERDAY'S EVENT REACHED MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES, AND SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES, WITH
CONSECUTIVE K VALUES OF 7 AND 8 RECORDED AT COLLEGE, ALASKA.
DURING THE INTERVAL 01/0900-1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 OCT 086
PREDICTED   03 OCT-05 OCT  088/088/090
90 DAY MEAN        02 OCT 083
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT  032/041
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT  005/005-005/005-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01