:Product: 19971003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 276 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8091 (N25E47) HAS GROWN IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY
SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY 7-8 SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP. REGION
8090 (S27E28) REMAINS STABLE AS A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 OCT 086
PREDICTED   04 OCT-06 OCT  086/086/087
90 DAY MEAN        03 OCT 083
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 OCT  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 OCT  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 OCT-06 OCT  005/008-010/008-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           01/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           01/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01