:Product: 19971004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 277 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8090 (S27E15) AND
8091 (N23E34) HAVE BOTH DECAYED SLOWLY AND WERE BOTH RELATIVELY
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AS A WELL-POSITIONED EXTENTION OF THE NORTHERN
CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 OCT 083
PREDICTED   05 OCT-07 OCT  082/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        04 OCT 083
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 OCT  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  005/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  010/008-020/020-020/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10