:Product: 19971005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 278 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW.  REGION 8091 (N23E21)
PRODUCED A B3.9/SF AT 05/1757Z.  A SPACE-BORNE INSTRUMENT DETECTED A
CORONAL MASS EJECTION IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR DISK NEAR
REGION 8090 (S28E03) COINCIDENT WITH THE FLARE IN REGION 8091.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOPHYSICAL FIELD IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR NEXT 12-18 HOURS BECOMING
UNSETTLED-ACTIVE THEREAFTER DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 OCT 084
PREDICTED   06 OCT-08 OCT  082/082/084
90 DAY MEAN        05 OCT 083
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT  002/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT  020/020-020/015-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05