:Product: 19971006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 279 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW WITH JUST MINOR
ISOLATED LOW FREQUENCY SWEEPS AND BURSTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOPHYSICAL FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO
FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL
HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 OCT 084
PREDICTED   07 OCT-09 OCT  084/084/086
90 DAY MEAN        06 OCT 084
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01