:Product: 19971008RSGA.txt :Issued: 1997 Oct 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 281 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 OCT 1997 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8092 (N24E41) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON A QUIET AND STABLE DISK. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT VERY LOW LEVELS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SUBSTORMS OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE, BRINGING EPISODES OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 08 OCT 083 PREDICTED 09 OCT-11 OCT 085/085/080 90 DAY MEAN 08 OCT 084 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 OCT 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 OCT 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 OCT-11 OCT 015/010-015/010-015/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 OCT-11 OCT A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 40/50/40 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/60/50 MINOR STORM 15/15/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05