:Product: 19971009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 282 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8092 (N25E28)
PRODUCED THE DAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A B9/0F WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT
1202Z. THE REGION IS STILL A SIMPLE BIPOLE WITH JUST 4 SUNSPOTS. NEW
REGION 8093 (N32E41) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES, AS SUBSTORMS CONTINUED. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WERE SEEN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSTORM
EFFECTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION
REPORTED ON OCTOBER 07 MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE FIELD IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS, ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY BEYOND THE ACTIVE LEVEL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 OCT 084
PREDICTED   10 OCT-12 OCT  085/085/080
90 DAY MEAN        09 OCT 084
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  017/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  015/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 OCT-12 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/40
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/50/50
MINOR STORM           25/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05