:Product: 19971010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 283 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8094
(N23W24) EMERGED IN THE EXTENDED PLAGE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
REGIONS 8092 (N24E13) AND 8093 (N31E27) WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH
PERSISTENT SUBSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT
OF PROLONGED PERIODS OF SOUTHWARD IMF. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX MEASURED AT GOES EXCEEDED THE HIGH LEVEL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 07 OCTOBER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
THIS DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE
END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 OCT-13 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 OCT 084
PREDICTED   11 OCT-13 OCT  085/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        10 OCT 084
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT  019/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT  025/025-015/018-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 OCT-13 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/40/30
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                65/50/40
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05