:Product: 19971011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 284 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8092 (N24E01), NOW
SPOTLESS, PRODUCED A B4/0F FLARE WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT 0858Z. THE
TWO SPOTTED REGIONS, 8093 (N31E14) AND 8094 (N21W37), WERE QUIET AND
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY INCREASED JUST AFTER A WEAK SUDDEN
IMPULSE PASSED AT APPROXIMATELY 10/1630Z. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
THOUGHT TO BE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A CME THAT LEFT THE SUN ON 07
OCTOBER. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE 1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 OCT 086
PREDICTED   12 OCT-14 OCT  085/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        11 OCT 084
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 OCT  025/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  010/???-010/???-010/???
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 OCT-14 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/40
MINOR STORM           25/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05