:Product: 19971012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 285 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B2
X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12/0602-0842Z. A WEAK TYPE II WAS
DETECTED BETWEEN 12/0613-0623Z. A CORONAL MORETON WAVE WAS OBSERVED
FROM REGION 8092 (N27W07) NEAR THE END OF THE LONG DURATION X-RAY
EVENT. CORONAGRAPH OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME CORONAL ACTIVITY DURING
AND AFTER THIS EVENT BUT NO HALO SIGNATURE WAS SEEN. A SMALL REGION
EMERGED NEAR N33E43 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8095.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
C-CLASS EVENTS FROM CURRENT DISK REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA
SHOW A QUIET FLOW IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 14-15 OCT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 OCT-15 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 OCT 089
PREDICTED   13 OCT-15 OCT  089/090/090
90 DAY MEAN        12 OCT 085
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 OCT  022/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT  010/012-012/015-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 OCT-15 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05