:Product: 19971013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 286 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B6.8
X-RAY ENHANCEMENT WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 13/0910-1423Z. COINCIDENT IN
TIME, THE MAJORITY OF A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S34W29 WAS SEEN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN PLACE. REGION 8093 (N31W11) EXHIBITED SLOW
GROWTH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. BRIEF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 13/0900-1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 14 AND
15 OCT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 OCT 088
PREDICTED   14 OCT-16 OCT  089/090/089
90 DAY MEAN        13 OCT 085
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT  012/015-012/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 OCT-16 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01