:Product: 19971014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 287 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8094 (N21W73)
PRODUCED A C1/1F FLARE AT 13/2318Z. NEW REGION 8096 (N14E63) EMERGED
AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT
GENERALLY VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 OCT 085
PREDICTED   15 OCT-17 OCT  086/086/088
90 DAY MEAN        14 OCT 085
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  010/010-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 OCT-17 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01