:Product: 19971015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 288 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. YESTERDAY'S NEWLY NUMBERED
REGION 8096 (N14E51) PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 14/2115Z WITH SMALL
B-CLASS X-RAY OUTPUT, BUT HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE. TODAY'S NEW REGION,
8097 (N17E80) PRODUCED A BRIGHT SURGE AT 15/1508Z COINCIDING WITH A
B5.9 X-RAY OUTPUT. ALL OTHER REGIONS REMAINED QUIET. X-RAY IMAGERY
INDICATES A NEW REGION ROTATING THE EAST LIMB AT N15.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH BOTH NEW REGIONS HAVING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 OCT 087
PREDICTED   16 OCT-18 OCT  087/088/088
90 DAY MEAN        15 OCT 085
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT  005/008-005/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 OCT-18 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01