:Product: 19971016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 289 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8097 (N16E69)
PRODUCED A B1/SF FLARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN 11 DEGREE LONG DSF AT
16/1722Z. OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 OCT 088
PREDICTED   17 OCT-19 OCT  088/088/090
90 DAY MEAN        16 OCT 085
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  005/010-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 OCT-19 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01