:Product: 19971017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 290 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8093 (N31W60)
PRODUCED THREE SUBFLARES, THE STRONGEST A B3/SF AT 17/1420Z. A CME
WAS OBSERVED ON LASCO IMAGES OFF THE SW LIMB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
B1 FLARE ON 16/2147Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THIS FORECAST MAY BE MODIFIED
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE CME MENTIONED IN PART IA.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 OCT-20 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 OCT 088
PREDICTED   18 OCT-20 OCT  088/088/090
90 DAY MEAN        17 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 OCT  006/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 OCT  006/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 OCT-20 OCT  010/008-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 OCT-20 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01