:Product: 19971018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 291 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON OCT 20 OR 21. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FROM THE CME
OBSERVED ON THE SW LIMB ASSOCIATED WITH THE B1 LDE AT 16/2147Z. MOST
OF THIS CME IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE EARTH DUE TO ITS APPARENT
DIRECTION AND SURMISED ORIGIN AT (OR JUST BEHIND) THE WEST LIMB.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 OCT-21 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 OCT 087
PREDICTED   19 OCT-21 OCT  088/088/090
90 DAY MEAN        18 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT  005/005-015/008-015/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 OCT-21 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05