:Product: 19971019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 292 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE ONLY X-RAY FLARE THAT
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS A B1 AT 19/1906Z. NO
OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED ACTIVITY ON OCT 20 OR 21 DUE TO A CME OBSERVED ON THE SW
LIMB IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN LDE X-RAY EVENT AT 16/2147Z.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 OCT 085
PREDICTED   20 OCT-22 OCT  085/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        19 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  015/008-015/008-010/004
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01