:Product: 19971020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 293 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8096
(N13W16) AND 8097 (N16E13), REMAIN STABLE AS 'HSX' SPOT GROUPS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
RECORDED DURING THE INTERVAL 20/0600-0900ZA.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 OCT 083
PREDICTED   21 OCT-23 OCT  083/083/082
90 DAY MEAN        20 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01