:Product: 19971021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 294 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8097 (N16W01), A 4-SPOT
'CRO' BETA GROUP, GENERATED A LONG DURATION C3/SF FLARE WITH
NUMEROUS ERUPTIVE CENTERS THAT PEAKED AT 21/1754Z. THE FLARE BEGAN
AFTER A FILAMENT RUNNING EAST-WEST THROUGH THE REGION BECAME ACTIVE
AND DISAPPEARED. EARLIER IN THE REPORTING PERIOD
(20/2349Z-21/0056Z), A 22-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT LOCATION
S33E59 IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG DURATION B3 X-RAY EVENT AND MINOR
TYPE II SHOCK. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME, SOHO-LASCO/EIT RECORDED A
PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT BEGAN AS A BRIGHT FRONT IN
THE SOUTHEAST, AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT TO THE WEST AND
NORTH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY BE ALTERED
FOLLOWING FURTHER ANALYSIS OF TODAY'S C3 X-RAY EVENT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 OCT-24 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 OCT 085
PREDICTED   22 OCT-24 OCT  083/083/083
90 DAY MEAN        21 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 OCT-24 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01