:Product: 19971022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
********** CORRECTED COPY **********
SDF NUMBER 295 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8097 (N16W14) IS
CURRENTLY THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND HAS
REMAINED STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY'S C3/SF EVENT. A NEW REGION MAY
BE EMERGING NEAR S24E30.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RECORDED AT FREDERICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL
22/0000-0600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON DAY THREE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
YESTERDAY'S LONG DURATION C3/SF AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 OCT 081
PREDICTED   23 OCT-25 OCT  081/079/078
90 DAY MEAN        22 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  005/008-015/020-025/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 OCT-25 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/50
MINOR STORM           05/10/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10