:Product: 19971023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 296 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS. A 12 DEGREE LONG, 1/2 DEGREE WIDE NORMAL DENSITY
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE INTERVAL 23/1211-1332Z FROM THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE FILAMENT FIRST SHOWED STRONG LINEAR CHANGE,
AND THEN BEGAN LOSING MASS QUICKLY IN AN ERUPTIVE MANNER, WITH AN
APPARENT EJECTION OF MATERIAL TRANSITING ALONG A 90 DEGREE RADIAL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM ON DAY THREE. THIS ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LONG DURATION C3 X-RAY AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT ON 21
OCTOBER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 OCT 080
PREDICTED   24 OCT-26 OCT  079/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        23 OCT 085
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 OCT  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT  015/020-025/030-030/035
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 OCT-26 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/35/40
MINOR STORM           05/20/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/40/45
MINOR STORM           10/25/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/15