:Product: 19971024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 297 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8098 (S26W03),
AN EMERGING AXX SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MID LATITUDES
AND QUIET TO MAJOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUTDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM AT MID LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLED DOWN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
BY DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 OCT 079
PREDICTED   25 OCT-27 OCT  078/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        24 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT  023/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT  030/030-020/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 OCT-27 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/45/25
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/20/05