:Product: 19971026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 299 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. ONLY OCCASIONAL
UNCORRELATED MINOR X-RAY PERTURBATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED. OPTICAL
REPORTS INDICATE A SMALL FILAMENT DISSAPPEARED FROM REGION 8098
(S26W29). THIS REGION HAS SHOWN MINOR PLAGE INTENSITY FLUCUATIONS AS
WELL AS INTERMITTENT PORE FORMATION AND DECAY. REGION 8099 (N19E52)
IS SLOWLY GROWING BUT HAS REMAINED INACTIVE AND QUIET. THE REMAINDER
OF THE VISIBLE DISK AND LIMB HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8099 HAS ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE AT ALL LATITUDES.
SPACE-BASED SENSORS INDICATE A LOW-DENSITY, HIGH-VELOCITY SOLAR WIND
STREAM CONSISTENT WITH CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. DATA INDICATE A
POOR-QUALITY NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE EXTENSION IS MOVING JUST WEST OF
A GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 26/1628Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 OCT 082
PREDICTED   27 OCT-29 OCT  082/082/080
90 DAY MEAN        26 OCT 086
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 OCT  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 OCT  011/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 OCT-29 OCT  015/010-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 OCT-29 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01