:Product: 19971027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 300 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SENSORS DETECTED A SERIES
OF OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. REGION 8099 (N19E37) PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFAINT FLARE. NEW
REGION 8100 (S21E67), A NEW CSO SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8098 (S23W43) HAS DEVELOPED A BXO SPOT GROUP ONCE MORE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW. REGIONS 8099 AND 8100 HAVE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT ALL LATITUDES. MID
LATITUDES SAW A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT ABOUT 27/0300Z.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM NORMAL TO
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 OCT 084
PREDICTED   28 OCT-30 OCT  084/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        27 OCT 087
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 OCT  015/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 OCT-30 OCT  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 OCT-30 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10