:Product: 19971028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 301 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8100 (S20E55) PRODUCED
BOTH OF THE DAY'S C-CLASS FLARES, A C2/0N AT 0338Z, AND A C5/1F AT
1256Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE SIMPLE MAGNETICALLY, CONSISTING OF 9
SPOTS OCCUPYING 130 MILLIONTHS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOALR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8100 SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS NEAR
1930Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 OCT-31 OCT
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 OCT 086
PREDICTED   29 OCT-31 OCT  085/085/090
90 DAY MEAN        28 OCT 087
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 OCT  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 OCT-31 OCT  005/010-005/015-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 OCT-31 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01