:Product: 19971029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 302 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. BOTH SPOTTED REGIONS, 8099
(N20E11) AND 8100 (S21E44) WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT
FLARE ACTIVITY OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8100 IS LIKELY TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. WEAK
SUBSTORMS BROUGHT EPISODES OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO HIGH LATITUDES.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ONCE
AGAIN REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 OCT-01 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 OCT 087
PREDICTED   30 OCT-01 NOV  090/090/090
90 DAY MEAN        29 OCT 087
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 OCT  011/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 OCT  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 OCT-01 NOV  010/015-010/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 OCT-01 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01