:Product: 19971030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 303 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. FLARES WERE MORE FREQUENT
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT NONE EXCEEDED B-CLASS. REGION 8100 (S19E30)
HAD THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT GREW IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA.
REGION 8099 (N20W03) IS LESS IMPRESSIVE IN H-ALPHA, BUT MORE
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX THAN 8100. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8100 SHOULD BEGIN TO GENERATE C-CLASS ACTIVITY IF ITS GROWTH
CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED, ALTHOUGH WEAK
SUBSTORMS AGAIN BROUGHT SHORT-LIVED ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO HIGH
LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS JUST AFTER 1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH 02 NOV.
WEAK SUBSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 OCT-02 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 OCT 088
PREDICTED   31 OCT-02 NOV  090/090/095
90 DAY MEAN        30 OCT 087
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 OCT  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 OCT  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 OCT-02 NOV  010/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 OCT-02 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01