:Product: 19971031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 304 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 OCT 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. OF THE FEW FLARES THAT
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST WAS A B4/OF FROM REGION 8100 (S20E15) AT
1938Z. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8101 (S19W70) EMERGED MIDWAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8100 IS STILL THOUGHT TO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MILDLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GOES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AROUND 1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 NOV-03 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 OCT 091
PREDICTED   01 NOV-03 NOV  090/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        31 OCT 087
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 OCT  005/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 OCT  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 NOV-03 NOV  005/008-005/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 NOV-03 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01