:Product: 19971101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 305 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8100 (S19E00)
PRODUCED SEVERAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION STABILIZED BUT
INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LOW. REGION 8100 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING C-CLASS
EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED IN THE 01/0300-0600Z PERIOD.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 NOV-04 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 NOV 093
PREDICTED   02 NOV-04 NOV  094/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        01 NOV 088
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 OCT  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 NOV  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 NOV-04 NOV  008/008-008/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 NOV-04 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05