:Product: 19971102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 306 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8100 (S19W11)
PRODUCED A C2/SB FLARE AT 02/0304Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND A
C2/SF AT 02/2049Z. REGION 8100 ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL B-CLASS
SUBFLARES. GROWTH BEGAN ANEW IN THIS REGION LATE ON 01 NOV. SEVERAL
SMALL ISLANDS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY EMERGED THROUGHOUT THE REGION
COMPLICATING THE EXISTING BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.  A
SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N30E13 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION
8102.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 8100 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IMPULSIVE
SMALL AREA C-CLASS EVENTS NEAR THE SMALL REGIONS OF EMERGING FLUX.
OCCASIONAL SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE - ESPECIALLY IF GROWTH
AND INCREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN THE REGION CONTINUE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A
BENIGN SLOW SPEED FLOW IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 03-04 NOV. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ON 06 NOV.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 NOV-05 NOV
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 NOV 098
PREDICTED   03 NOV-05 NOV  100/102/103
90 DAY MEAN        02 NOV 088
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 NOV  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 NOV  001/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 NOV-05 NOV  005/008-010/010-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 NOV-05 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01