:Product: 19971103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 307 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8100 (S20W27)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 03/0910Z AND AN M4 (NO OPTICAL) FLARE AT
03/1029Z. BOTH FLARES WERE IMPULSIVE AND HAD TYPE II/IV EVENTS WITH
MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. CORONAL MORETON WAVES WERE OBSERVED
WITH THESE EVENTS. A HALO CME WAS OBSERVED TO FOLLOW THESE EVENTS.
FINALLY, REGION 8100 PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 03/2016Z WITH A TYPE IV.
DURING THE PERIOD, DRAMATIC GROWTH OCCURRED IN THIS REGION AND A
STRONG  MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED. REGION 8100 BECAME A
SIGNIFICANT REGION DURING THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO LARGE AREAL
COVERAGE AND GREATLY INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND HIGH
GRADIENTS. REPORTS WERE RECEIVED OF STRONG SHEAR THAT HAD DEVELOPED
NEAR THE DELTA AND EMERGING FLUX.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8100 IS CAPABLE OF CONTINUED M-CLASS AND
OCCASIONAL X-CLASS EVENT PRODUCTION. CONTINUED DRAMATIC GROWTH COULD
RESULT IN A REGION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT M-CLASS EVENTS AND
SEVERAL X-CLASS EVENTS A DAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ONCE AGAIN, ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE UNSETTLED ON 04 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR 05 NOV. DUE TO THE HALO CME MENTIONED ABOVE, ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 06 NOVEMBER. PERIODS OF MAJOR
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DISTURBANCE. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A MODERATE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT FROM
REGION 8100 DURING THE PERIOD. ONE MORE DAY OF CONTINUED GROWTH AND
INCREASE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WOULD MAKE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT
OCCURRENCE HIGH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     25/25/25
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 NOV 110
PREDICTED   04 NOV-06 NOV  115/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        03 NOV 088
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  002/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  010/010-018/020-025/035
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 NOV-06 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/20/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/20