:Product: 19971104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 308 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8100 (S21W38)
PRODUCED AN X2/2B AT 04/0558Z. THIS EVENT HAD A 690 F.U. BURST AT 10
CM AND TYPE II/IV BURSTS.  A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED
FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. THIS FLARE WAS PRECEDED BY AN M1 (NO OPTICAL)
AT 04/0135Z AND AN M4/1F FROM REGION 8100 AT 04/0242Z. REGION 8100
ALSO PRODUCED MANY C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8100 CONTINUED TO GROW
DURING THE PERIOD BUT AT A REDUCED RATE FROM THAT EXHIBITED ON 03
NOV. AREAL COVERAGE BECAME APPROXIMATELY 1000 MILLIONTHS DURING THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SEVERAL AREAS THAT WERE EXHIBITING MIXED POLARITIES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW FADING RESULTING IN A MORE BIPOLAR CONFIGURATION
OF THE REGION. THE DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED BUT APPARENTLY IS
WEAKENING. A NEW REGION EMERGED AT A RAPID PACE NEAR N24E10, WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8103, AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
MODERATE. REGION 8100 REMAINS POTENT BUT THE DECREASE IN MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY ARGUES STRONGLY THAT FLARE FREQUENCY AND PEAK FLARE FLUX
SHOULD ABATE SLIGHTLY. LARGE M-CLASS OR SMALL X-CLASS FLARES COULD
OCCUR BUT ONLY INFREQUENTLY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 04/1500-1800Z PERIOD. A
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 04/0640Z, PASSED THE 10
PFU THRESHOLD AT 04/0830Z, AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 72 PFU AT
04/1120Z. THEREAFTER, GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES SLOWLY
DECLINED AND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WERE AT 16 PFU. THE GREATER
THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 2.6 PFU AT 04/0930Z.
POLAR CAP ABSORPTION DURING THIS EVENT WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN
2.6 DB WITH A MAXIMUM AT APPROXIMATELY 04/1300Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE ON 05 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN ON 06 NOV AS A RESULT OF A HALO CME OBSERVED
ON 03 NOV. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 07 NOV FROM THE
X2 EVENT AND HALO CME OBSERVED ON 04 NOV. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMING
IS POSSIBLE ON 07 NOV.  ANOTHER PROTON EVENT IS POSSIBLE SHOULD
REGION 8100 PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, ONLY ISOLATED MAJOR FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     25/25/25
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 NOV 118
PREDICTED   05 NOV-07 NOV  121/122/120
90 DAY MEAN        04 NOV 089
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  015/020-025/035-050/060
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 NOV-07 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/30
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           20/35/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/35