:Product: 19971105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 309 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8100 (S20W53) GENERATED
SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PAST DAY. THE LARGEST FLARE
OBSERVED IN 8100 WAS A C7/1N PEAKING AT 05/0637Z. THIS REGION
REMAINS A LARGE (NEAR 1000 MILLIONTHS) COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP (FKC
SPOT CLASS). MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES AND THE DELTA SUNSPOT
CONFIGURATION PERSIST. REGION 8103 (N23W03) GREW SOMEWHAT SINCE
YESTERDAY AND PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 05/1849Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FREQUENT,
PRIMARILY IN REGION 8100 ALTHOUGH REGION 8103 MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW
C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8100 REMAINS CAPABLE OF MAJOR SOLAR ACTIVITY
AND COULD PRODUCE AN M5 OR GREATER X-RAY FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME HIGH-LATITUDE
STATIONS. THE PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV HAS ENDED (START:
04/0830Z, PEAK-72PFU: 04/1120Z, END:05/1125Z).
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH STORM CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW DUE TO THE SOLAR
ACTIVITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. ELEVATED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 8 NOVEMBER. ANOTHER PROTON EVENT AT GREATER
THAN 10 MEV IS LIKELY IF REGION 8100 PRODUCES ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 NOV 114
PREDICTED   06 NOV-08 NOV  115/110/105
90 DAY MEAN        05 NOV 089
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV  025/035-050/060-030/040
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 NOV-08 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/25
MINOR STORM           10/35/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/20