:Product: 19971107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 311 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST (AND ONLY) C-CLASS
FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C1/SF IN REGION 8103 (N22W33) AT
07/0926Z. THIS REGON IS GROWING SLOWLY BUT REMAINS A SMALL,
RELATIVELY SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8100 (S19W77) HAS BEEN QUIET
SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE, ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SMALL SUBFLARES.
THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS; HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WEST LIMB MAKES A COMPLETE
ANALYSIS DIFFICULT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8103. REGION
8100 MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE BEFORE ITS DISK DEPARTURE BUT
THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MAJOR
TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS DURING
THE 07/0000-0600Z PERIODS FOLLOWING AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL
AND SUDDEN STORM COMMENCEMENT (SSC) AT 06/2252Z. THIS SHOCK IS
PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/2B FLARE OF 04 NOV. THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV AND GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS GENERATED FROM
YESTERDAY'S X9/2B FLARE REMAIN IN PROGRESS. PROTON EVENT
PARTICULARS: GREATER THAN 10 MEV START 06/1305Z AND PEAK (490 PFU)
07/0250Z; GREATER THAN 100 MEV START 06/1245Z AND PEAK (51 PFU)
06/1640Z. THE PCA CONTINUES IN PROGRESS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED STORM
CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE X9/2B FLARE DUE TO THE
FLARE LOCATION AND THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CME.
HOWEVER, IF THE SHOCK ENCOUNTERS THE EARTH TOMORROW, AS EXPECTED,
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY BE ENHANCED TO ACTIVE TO
STORM LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENTS ARE  EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PROGRESS
THROUGH TOMORROW AS FLUXES SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
CLASS M    25/10/01
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 NOV 094
PREDICTED   08 NOV-10 NOV  090/085/080
90 DAY MEAN        07 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV  030/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV  030/035-015/030-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           25/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01