:Product: 19971108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 312 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES WERE
OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY, NONE OF WHICH WERE ABOVE C1 LEVEL. REGION
8100 (S20W90) IS AT THE WESTERN SOLAR LIMB AND APPEARS TO BE
DEPARTING QUIETLY. REGION 8103 (N23W42) HAS SLOWED GROWTH AS A SMALL
C-CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8105 (S35E21) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 8100 AS IT DEPARTS THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 100
MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1245Z, PEAK: 06/1640Z (51
PFU), END: 08/0250Z]. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS
IN PROGRESS [START: 06/1305Z, PEAK: 07/0250Z (490 PFU), CURRENT
(08/2100Z) FLUX 18 PFU]. THE PCA EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1400Z
AND END: 08/1100Z]. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE SOLAR WIND DATA DOES NOT
YET SHOW EVIDENCE OF A SHOCK PASSAGE FROM THE 06 NOV X9/2B FLARE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. IF AN
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVES AT THE EARTH FROM THE 6 NOV X9/2B FLARE
AND ASSOCIATED CME, THEN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY INTENSIFY
BRIEFLY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD END TOMORROW.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
CLASS M    10/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 NOV 090
PREDICTED   09 NOV-11 NOV  085/080/080
90 DAY MEAN        08 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV  028/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  015/030-010/012-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 NOV-11 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01