:Product: 19971109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 313 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8103 (N20W60), A
7-SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP, IS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION CURRENTLY ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, HAVING GENERATED A FEW B-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS DURING THE
REPORTING PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED
[START: 06/1305Z, PEAK: 07/0250Z (490 PFU), END 09/1205Z].
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 NOV 086
PREDICTED   10 NOV-12 NOV  083/082/081
90 DAY MEAN        09 NOV   090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 NOV-12 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01