:Product: 19971110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 314 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8103 (N19W70) DISPLAYED
MARKED GROWTH EARLY IN THE REPORTING PERIOD, DEVELOPING INTO A 'DAO'
SPOT GROUP WHILE GENERATING FOUR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS, THE LARGEST A
C4/SF AT 10/0722Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8103 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED
C-CLASS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PREPARES TO ROTATE OFF
THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE REPORTING PERIOD THROUGH 0900Z, AND MOSTLY QUIET THEREAFTER.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 NOV 089
PREDICTED   11 NOV-13 NOV  087/085/084
90 DAY MEAN        10 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  012/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  012/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 NOV-13 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01