:Product: 19971111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 315 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8103 (N18W84)
GENERATED FOUR ADDITIONAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS,
THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 11/0727. REGION 8106 (N27W44) WAS NUMBERED
YESTERDAY, BUT WAS NOT OFFICIALLY CLASSIFIED UNTIL TODAY DUE TO
POOR/INCONSISTENT SEEING AT THE ONSERVING STATIONS. REGION 8106 IS
CURRENTLY A 5-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8103 COULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL C-CLASS
EVENTS AS IT DEPARTS THE WEST LIMB.  REGION 8106 HAS ALSO SHOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, EXCEPT
FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL
11/0300-0600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 NOV 092
PREDICTED   12 NOV-14 NOV  088/086/086
90 DAY MEAN        11 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 NOV-14 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01