:Product: 19971112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 316 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, MOSTLY LIKELY FROM REGION 8106
(N28W56), ALTHOUGH NONE WERE OPTICALLY CORRELATED. WITH THE WEST
LIMB DEPARTURE OF REGION 8103 (N20W93), REGION 8106 IS CURRENTLY THE
ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH THE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS FROM REGION 8106.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 NOV 087
PREDICTED   13 NOV-15 NOV  086/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        12 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 NOV  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 NOV-15 NOV  005/008-005/005-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 NOV-15 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01