:Product: 19971113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 317 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A SERIES OF UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE
LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2.3 AT 13/1508Z. REGION 8106 (N28W71)
PRODUCED A C1/SF WITH AN ASSOCIATED HIGH SPEED SURGE AT 13/1746Z.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. NEW
REGIONS 8107 (S25W26), A DRO SPOT GROUP, AND 8108 (N21E78), AN HAX
SPOT GROUP, WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8108 EXHIBITS SPORADIC SURGING AND BRIGHTENING AND
APPEARS TO HAVE FAIR TO GOOD FLARE AND GROWTH POTENTIAL AS IT
ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION MAY DEVELOP A FAIR CHANCE
OF M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
CLASS M    01/05/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 NOV 090
PREDICTED   14 NOV-16 NOV  092/092/094
90 DAY MEAN        13 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV  005/005-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 NOV-16 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01