:Product: 19971114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 318 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E67)
PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES TODAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF LONG
DURATION EVENT AT 14/1038Z. SPACE-BASED SENSORS DETECTED A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION PARTIAL HALO EVENT OFF THE NE LIMB THAT CAN BE
CORRELATED WITH THIS EVENT. THE OTHER EVENT WAS A C3/SF FLARE WITH
AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AT 14/0131Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO
GROW AS IT ROTATES ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. AN UNCORRELATED C1 EVENT
WAS ALSO DETECTED AT 14/0713Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE
PRODUCTION AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
CLASS M    05/10/15
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 NOV 093
PREDICTED   15 NOV-17 NOV  094/096/096
90 DAY MEAN        14 NOV 090
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05