:Product: 19971115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 319 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N20E58) PRODUCED A
C2/SF FLARE AT 15/0142Z. THIS REGION HAS GROWN INTO AN EAO SPOT
GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. AN UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 15/1041Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PEIOD. REGION 8108 HAS A DECENT CHANCE
OF CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY, AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SMALL X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DAY THREE MAY BRING OCCASIONAL ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MID LATITUDES AS THE RESULT OF CME
REPORTED ON 14TH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
CLASS M    10/15/15
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 NOV 096
PREDICTED   16 NOV-18 NOV  098/098/098
90 DAY MEAN        15 NOV 091
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  005/008-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05