:Product: 19971116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 320 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8108 (N21E42)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N TENFLARE AT 15/2246Z. REGION 8108 ALSO PRODUCED A
SMALL C1/SF FLARE AT 16/0125Z. THIS REGION HAS DECREASED IN OVERALL
SIZE BUT HAS INCREASED ITS NUMBER OF SPOTS. IT IS NOW AN EAI SPOT
GROUP WITH A COMPLEX MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. TWO UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NEW REGION 8109 (S18E66), A SINGLE HRX SPOT SO FAR, WAS NUMBERED
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RETURNING REGION 8101.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A
RESULT OF THE OBSERVED CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF THE EAST SOLAR LIMB
TWO DAYS AGO.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 NOV 096
PREDICTED   17 NOV-19 NOV  098/098/096
90 DAY MEAN        16 NOV 091
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  009/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  010/010-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05