:Product: 19971117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 321 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N21E29) GREW IN
WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARES IN THE
PROCESS. ITS LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8/0F AT 1510Z, WITH MODEST RADIO
BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THE REGION NOW IS CLASSIFIED AS A
BETA-GAMMA DELTA, HAVING MIXED POLARITIES IN THE LARGE LEADER
SUNSPOT. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 WOULD BE THE SITE OF ANY ENERGETIC SOLAR
EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL IF A CME-DRIVEN SHOCK,
RELATED TO ACTIVITY SEEN LATE ON 13 NOVEMBER, PASSES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 NOV 094
PREDICTED   18 NOV-20 NOV  100/100/100
90 DAY MEAN        17 NOV 091
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  015/015-015/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 NOV-20 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05