:Product: 19971118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 322 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E16)
GENERATED JUST B-CLASS EVENTS AS IT SIMPLIFIED MAGNETICALLY DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MIXED POLARITIES IN THE DOMINANT LEADER SPOT
HAVE WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN RELAXED GRADIENTS. THE
REGION NUMBERS APPROXIMATELY 35 SPOTS AND MEASURES 350 MILLIONTHS IN
WHITE LIGHT AREA. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8110 (N27E54) EMERGED AS A
SINGLE SPOT WITH LITTLE PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR C AND M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. ONE SHORT-LIVED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 1200-1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 NOV 092
PREDICTED   19 NOV-21 NOV  095/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        18 NOV 091
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV  015/010-015/015-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 NOV-21 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05