:Product: 19971119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 323 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E03) PRODUCED A
LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT, BEGINNING ABOUT 1700Z AND STILL IN
PROGRESS. THE EXTENDED MAXIMUM OF THE FLARE WAS CENTERED AT 1910Z.
MODEST RADIO BURSTS AT 245, 410 AND 606 MHZ ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT.
THE REGION IS STILL MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, WITH A SLIGHT MIXTURE OF
POLARITIES EXISTING IN THE MAIN LEADER SPOT. LITTLE ELSE OF
SIGNIFICANCE ON THE VISIBLE DISK OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM
REGION 8108 IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A HIGH SPEED STREAM IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AT THIS LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 NOV-22 NOV
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 NOV 099
PREDICTED   20 NOV-22 NOV  095/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        19 NOV 091
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV  011/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV  015/015-015/018-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 NOV-22 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05